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Accelerated decarbonisation trends expected in 2024

Kimpton, an award-winning HVAC installation and maintenance specialist, reflects on the transformative changes witnessed in 2023 and predicts an even more accelerated shift towards decarbonisation in 2024. With a 60-year legacy in the industry, the company makes some insightful predictions for the coming year that not only highlight emerging trends but also contribute to the race towards achieving Net Zero emissions.

Key Decarbonisation Predictions for 2024:

Energy Costs and Carbon Pricing:

The evolving energy landscape is set to impact the decarbonisation journey. The company recognise the need to break the link between electricity prices and the wholesale cost of fossil fuels. As the energy mix undergoes significant transformations, the company anticipates that closing the gap between retail gas and electricity prices will play a pivotal role in driving the shift from gas to electricity in homes and businesses. With a potential change in government in 2024, there is an opportunity for a bold green statement that could reshape the energy market.

Solar PV Growth:

Kimpton sees substantial growth in commercial-scale Solar Photovoltaic (PV) installations. Businesses making the switch to solar energy gain a even greater competitive advantages with lower running costs and increased cash flow for further investments. Tax incentives will further incentivise capital investment, making the effective aggregate rate for electricity when solar PV is part of the mix, highly attractive both now and in the future.

VTG Battery Storage:

Vehicle-to-Grid (VTG) technology should emerge as a genuine game-changer in the electricity market. Electric vehicles plugged in at home or work serve as distributed storage for excess energy, contributing to the levelling of overall demand and reducing reliance on grid-based storage or excess production from gas-powered stations. The company notes that although the technology is ready and in beta test mode, regulatory approval will be welcomed.

Heat Pumps and District-Based Solutions:

There is increasing demand for district-based ground source heat pump systems, providing cost-effective and space-efficient solutions for well-insulated groups of buildings. The synergy with Solar PV (and potentially VTG) on new build sites positions heat pumps as a key element in delivering comfortable, low-impact developments.

Hot Water Storage as an Alternative to Battery Storage:

In response to evolving battery technology, Kimpton observes a growing trend of using excess energy to heat water, presenting an alternative to traditional battery storage. This approach proves beneficial for establishments with high hot water demand during specific periods. Hot water tanks, once removed with the advent of condensing boilers, are making a comeback to harness cheap or free energy from renewable sources and variable supply based pricing.

Business Development Manager said: “We see some big changes happening this year and the drive towards Net Zero gathering even more pace. Whilst these predictions may seem some way off to many, any of them could begin to have an impact for our clients almost as soon as they are introduced.

Net Zero is achievable but it isn’t going to happen overnight. It will be delivered with a series of small logical steps, and picking the big wins first. Levelling out demand is one critical area that is often overlooked, but would save millions of tons in co2, by not having to have gas power stations on standby, just in case there’s a sudden rise in demand”

14 December 2023

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