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One of the primary long-term issues affecting the UK HVAC industry is a skills shortage in the arena of low carbon technology installation. What are the reasons behind this global problem and what are the solutions?

A global skills shortage in the HVAC industry is driven by three key issues. An ageing demographic of workforce; a reluctance by both customers and HVAC engineers to adopt new renewable technologies; and a lack of state sponsored financial assistance for training & education that passes on skills in renewable technology installations.

The following article will present fact-based evidence that supports these observations. Figures released by the major manufacturer Wavin indicate that 50% of UK qualified HVAC installers worked on heat pumps installations during the first quarter of 2025. In the first quarter of 2024 the figure was at 60%, highlighting a sizeable loss.

Wavin contacted hundreds of installers across Europe to identify the progress being made in adapting to renewable technologies such as heat pumps and solar. Wavin’s research in the UK reveals that four out of ten installers are not up to speed with the latest developments in environmental legislation. UK HVAC professional awareness surrounding legislation is not the only area of concern regarding NetZero objectives.

Eight out of 10 German HVAC installers are fully qualified to work on heat pumps, where the UK number is five out of ten. The UK is also underprepared in offering attractive manufacturer and customer incentives that encourage the production, purchase and wider acceptance of technology that uses sustainable energy resources.

Currently 27% of UK consumers view clean energy technology as a viable and affordable solution for providing heating and hot water. Europe’s leading nation in domestic customer renewable acceptance, The Netherlands, saw 55% of customers demand clean and alternative DHW and heating methods. Only 6% of UK customers actively seek out sustainable energy solutions.

UK trades supplier City Plumbing has produced a survey of five hundred contractors which sought to produce data on the progress of UK installers adopting renewable technologies. One of the report’s observations show that slow UK consumer demand for clean energy technology is cited as a potential cause of installers remaining reluctant to widen their skills set.

Of all those surveyed, 24% of UK installers said that they did not feel that learning new skills relating to the installation of heat pumps was a vital necessity, solely due to a lack of sustained customer demand. A further 20% of those responding believed that renewable upskilling was not an option as retirement is soon approaching.

A 2023 UK government survey “The Heating and Cooling Installer Study” released data that stated two thirds of installers were over the age of 45 years old. The ageing demographic of UK installers and a lack of widespread customer renewable demand are two issues that have combined to heighten the problem of a skills shortage in the UK HVAC industry.

City Plumbing’s report has also revealed that 73% of respondents believe there are not enough qualified heat pump installers to meet government targets of 600,000 heat pump installations a year by 2028. To establish some perspective – last year 60,000 heat pumps were installed across the UK. In 2021 the number of heat pumps installed across the UK was 55,000.

Additionally, 85% of respondents also feel that there is not enough state provided financial assistance for upskilling towards low carbon technologies.

UK government officials have recognised the importance of investing in the low carbon installation workforce and has recently announced “The Warm Homes Skills Programme,” and “Heat Training Grant.”

These new initiatives supply UK installers with funding contributions or discounts towards training that provides the requisite skills to install renewable technologies like heat pumps and solar.

The £8 million “Warm Homes Skills Programme” will supply each UK installer with subsidised training in relation to retrofitting, insulation and solar panel installation training.

The “Heat Training Grant” issues applicants with a £500 discount on courses that provide heat pump and heat network training. This scheme will be running until March 2026.

The UK government also announced earlier this year a £3 billion investment into areas like construction and engineering as part of the current government’s “Plan for Change” strategy. This investment is aimed towards attracting younger applicants to trades required in the labour force.

Dr Anastasia Mylona, CIBSE Technical Director, commented: “This is a welcome and much-needed investment in our workforce. The building services sector is at the forefront of delivering safe, efficient, and sustainable environments – and that relies on a pipeline of skilled professionals. By strengthening training provision and attracting young people into engineering, we can not only address current shortages but also drive long-term innovation and resilience in the built environment.”

Other notable economies that possess identical issues include Germany. According to statistics released by the BDEW – the German Association of Energy and Water Industries – 73% of German companies believe the skills shortage is due to a change in demographic (age).

A potential repercussion of an ageing labour demographic could affect the momentum of a German domestic energy transition, as 85% of companies assume that progress in the energy transition will be negatively affected because of the skills shortage.

The American HVAC industry also suffers from a symmetrical skills shortage issue. There are currently 110,000 unfilled US HVAC positions nationwide, whilst around 25,000 workers exit the workforce a year. It has been predicted that the US HVAC market could have 225,000 vacant positions inside the next five years.

Again, an ageing demographic of technicians is a huge factor in the US HVAC skills shortage. National trade association the Air Conditioning Contractors of America (ACCA) estimate an average age of fifty-five as an American HVAC worker. Due to the unusual political climate of America and the current administrations preference towards fossil fuels the US HVAC industry is struggling to create a clear pathway of future direction.

If there are widespread international vacancies in the HVAC sector, are large jobs not being finished or even started due to a chronic skills shortage? Will a global shortage of HVAC engineers result in a collective economic stagnation in the industry?

Rinnai evaluates all news and policy updates relating to DHW, heating, and HVAC in both the UK and abroad. Any information which could affect product or energy options will be transparently shared with the specifier, contractor installer, and UK customer.

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