The report, From Carbon to Competitiveness: The UK Opportunity Associated with Decarbonising Residential Heating, models the impact of accelerating the deployment of decarbonised heating in line with the ambition set out in the Government’s Carbon Budget and Growth Delivery Plan for 2025-2035. It finds that electrifying home heating, primarily through hydronic heat pumps, could increase total Gross Value Added (GVA) from residential heating from £12.2 billion today to £22.5billion by 2035, an 85% rise from 2025.

Key findings include:

• Heat pump manufacturing, installation and use was already worth £1.0 billion to the UK economy in 2025,with the opportunity to rise to £15.0 billion by 2035.

• Heat pump related employment could grow by over 110,000 full-time equivalent jobs by 2035, accounting for 82% of jobs in the residential heating sector.

• UK manufacturing could expand by between 15-fold and 27-fold by 2035, with further potential through exports.

• Gas demand could fall by 63 TWh between 2025 and 2035, saving enough energy to run the London Underground for 75 years.

• Public health benefits are evident, including a projected 6% reduction in overall UK air pollution by 2035 as fossil fuel boiler numbers decline.

• Carbon abatement from the rollout of heat pumps could reach 17 MtCO2e annually by 2035, equivalent to 20 million passenger flights from London to New York.

Commenting on the release, Charlotte Lee, HPA UK’s Chief Executive, said: “The findings show that decarbonising residential heating should not be viewed as a cost burden, but a major economic opportunity. Heat pumps can drive billions of pounds in growth, support tens of thousands of skilled jobs across the country and strengthen the UK’s energy security by reducing reliance on imported gas. With the right long term policy clarity, the UK can build a world-leading heat pump industry, grow our domestic manufacturing, and deliver cleaner, healthier homes for millions of residents.”

Chris Galpin, an energy advisor at climate think tank E3G, said: “Modernising Britain’s homes will make them warmer, more comfortable, and cheaper to heat. But it also has the potential to add billions to the UK economy. The UK should stop overtaxing electricity to unlock billions more in additional investment towards these bill-saving home upgrades.”

Garry Felgate, Chief Executive of The MCS Foundation, said, “MCS data shows that a record number of certified heat pumps are being installed across the UK. The analysis released today adds an additional layer to an already positive story - the boom in renewables is boosting well-paid jobs, driving the green economy, and providing efficient, affordable, fossil-free heating for households. To further enhance this trend, it is critical the Government reduce disproportionately high electricity prices. Doing so would maximise the economic opportunities and ensure households see the full benefits of savings on their energy bills.”

The publication of this report follows the organisation’s transition to HPA UK, following the successful merger of the Heat Pump Association, Ground Source Heat Pump Association and Heat Pump Federation, reflecting its expanded role in unifying the sector and its support for the UK’s accelerated deployment of heat pumps.