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Editorial: No jam today and less tomorrow

'Yet again the banks have received more of our money to bail them out', HVR editor Paul Braithwaite's monthly editorial.
Most of them have now been fully or partly nationalised. But what is happening? Not a lot.

If a private company such as a hedge fund had injected huge sums into a bank, it would surely have moved a couple of directors on to the board or replaced the chairman. But I suspect there are few civil servants capable of doing the job adequately. In the meantime, few bank bosses have fallen on their swords and those that did were amply rewarded.

The fat-cat lives of our top bankers go on. In fact, to a cynical old journalist like myself, it seems that the more mistakes they make, the bigger the bonuses. We own the banks now, and what are we getting for our money? Not a lot. Alistair Darling still seems scared to talk to the bankers without a metaphorical cloth cap in his hand.

We get promises but we have always had promises from this government. Often those promises did not amount to much - so no change there then.

The sharp interest rate cuts from 5.5% in January 2008 to 1.5% in January 2009 puts it at its lowest since the Bank of England was established in 1694. Good for mortgage payers but disastrous for the thousands of elderly who rely on the interest from their savings to live.

The jobless total is heading towards two million. The Construction Products Association quarterly report says that it expects this figure to go to three million by 2010 as the effects of economic contraction feed through.

And the fact that the value of Sterling is through the floor is not helping exports as much as it normally would because the contraction of the economy is worldwide - and, although our goods might be cheaper, demand is lower. I suspect there are plenty of construction workers who are part of these statistics.

It is interesting to note that government thought the 2.5% cut in VAT and lessening mortgage rates would stimulate spending. The idea was that, with all this extra money burning a hole in our pockets, we would rush out and spend, spend, spend.

The reality was that this would be put into a savings account because this year nobody's job is safe, and the extra money could mean the difference between losing our homes though defaulting on the mortgage or not.

The Tories were roundly vilified for suggesting the recession should be allowed to run its course without government interference, and Gordon Brown's rating went up as he 'saved the world economy'.

But there will be a payback. Government borrowing is expected to reach a record £118B (or 8% of GDP) in 2009 and 2010 compared with the £38B estimated in the March 2008 budget. And this raises fears of sharp cuts in government spending later as the private sector begins to recover.

The only bright spots on the horizon for this year and next are, of course, the Olympics, rail projects, the schools programme and the health sector. It is good to end on an upbeat note - although, in this case, the note is only relatively upbeat.
1 February 2009

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